Fracking company IGas as of 31st July 2016 have provided detailed reports of their unconventional gas resources across their current PEDL licenced areas, from data produced by Texas registered engineering firm, DeGolyer and MacNaughton. The document in question can be viewed on the Igas website or downloaded from here.
For the purpose of this article, I shall look at the locations around the Frack Free Dee area, if anyone from further afield is reading this, then simply take the relevant figures from the tables within the report for your area.
There is the usual disclaimer on the report that these are estimates of what is potentially recoverable, and that there is also the possibility that they could be wrong, but this is what the company is working from. It is also stated that these cannot be classed as reserves due to lack of sufficient exploration drilling, some of the data at least, seems to come from seismic testing.
There are a few terms that require definition to make these figures understandable, I’ll try to explain –
Gross Unconventional Prospective Resources refers to the total estimate that is potentially recoverable using data available as of 31st July 2016
Working Interest Resources refers to the amount of these resources that Igas owns the right of extraction; as in several of their PEDL areas they are in partnership with other companies (primarily Ineos) who have bought-in to financially support the floundering company, so the resources are divided amongst the partnership also.
Probability Estimates are given in several forms
- P90 means there is at least a 90% chance of this figure being achievable
- P50 means there is at least a 50% chance of this figure being achievable
- P10 means there is at least a 10% chance of this figure being achievable
So this is a way of saying that the amounts are somewhere in the region between x and y for example.
The data from the Frack Free Dee area is as follows –
**in the data, Chorlton is a named location within PEDL188, block SJ45. This is (to my knowledge) incorrect and I am assuming the PEDL and block numbers are the reliable source, this relates to the Farndon area.
Prospect Portfolio Summary for IGas
So, for Chorlton/Farndon? Igas have 75% stake in the gas
Upton, Igas have 25% stake in the gas
Ellesmere Port, Igas have 50% stake in the gas
Ince Marshes, Igas have 50% stake in the gas
Blacon, Igas have 25% stake in the gas
Sandbach, Igas have 30% stake in the gas
Crewe, Igas have 30% stake in the gas
Gross Prospective Raw Natural Gas Resources
Here we have several probability estimates (see explanation above), Here I will use the last column, the Adjusted Mean Estimate given as million cubic feet of recoverable gas, as it takes into account the probability of geological success.
Chorlton/Farndon? 44,845 million cubic feet of gas
Upton 171,117 million cubic feet of gas
Ellesmere Port 204,524 million cubic feet of gas
Ince Marshes 152,313 million cubic feet of gas
Blacon 179,330 million cubic feet of gas
Sandbach 376,389 million cubic feet of gas
Crewe 535,812 million cubic feet of gas
What we can do with these figures is convert this to kWh using this tool here. (Note we add four zeros to make hundreds of cubic feet to use the conversion tool. For example, Blacon holds 179,330 million cubic feet of gas, this equates to 179,330,0000 hundreds of cubic feet) This gives Blacon with 56656821889 kWh
Because these are big numbers, we divide this by a billion to get tWh = 56.66tWh
My mind started boggling at this point, so I used this conversation tool
So Blacon at 179,330m cubic feet of gas if it got produced over a four year period would offer the UK 14 tWh in each of those years.
UK annual gas demand in 2015 was 792 tWh per annum. So this is about 1.7% of UK useage
Using this working, I got these figures –
Chorlton/Farndon? – 14.17 tWh total
Upton – 54.06 tWh
Ellesmere Port – 64.62 tWh
Ince Marshes – 48.12 tWh
Blacon – 56.66 tWh
Sandbach – 118.91 tWh
Crewe – 169.28 kWh Giving a total of 526 tWh across the region.
It is worth remembering at this point that these amounts are working with the mean probability figures
P90 is the estimate that has a 90% chance of being achievable, P10 is the much higher estimate that only has a 10% chance of being achievable – the figures used here are somewhere in between these two extremes, so have a significant % that they are unachievable. PLUS this is a one-off, the figures may look big (and of course they are, as they are coming from IGas itself) but they are a one off. When its gone, its gone, and we will have to live with whatever unintentional side effects it causes, for ever.
Estimate of Working Interest Prospective Gas Resources
What we have now is a combination of the two above tables. For example in Blacon there are 179,330 million cubic feet of gas, and IGas has a working interest in 25% of this, so in terms of what this means for IGas this means they potentially have access to a quarter of this total estimate.
These then show how much of the gas is potentially available to igas – this is for interest’s sake only, as from a public point of view, its how much actual gas is there that is important, rather than which companies are going to take whatever percentage of the profits from it.
Chorlton/Farndon? – IGas have working interest of 33,634 million cubic feet of gas
Upton – IGas have working interest of 42,779 million cubic feet of gas
Ellesmere Port – IGas have working interest of 102,262 million cubic feet of gas
Ince Marshes – IGas have working interest of 76,156 million cubic feet of gas
Blacon – IGas have working interest of 44,832 million cubic feet of gas
Sandbach – Igas have working interest of 112,917 million cubic feet of gas
Crewe – Igas have working interest of 160,744 million cubic feet of gas
Probability Distributions for the Licenced Areas
For the purpose of this blog, these figures are for interests sake only, this is the raw data set that was used in stochastic modelling to produce the report and tables 1 to 3
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